What is India's population pyramid expected to look like by 2047, based on current demographic transitions noted in 2025?
Show answer & explanation
Correct answer: D
Explanation
Solution: The correct answer is (D) Bulging at elderly end, base contracts.
Explanation:
☛ India's demographic transition shows a steady decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which has dropped to 2.0 according to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), falling below the replacement level of 2.1.
☛ With declining birth rates, fewer children are being born, which causes the base of the population pyramid to contract.
☛ Simultaneously, advancements in healthcare and higher living standards are increasing life expectancy, leading to a rapid rise in the proportion and absolute number of senior citizens (aged 60 and above).
☛ Consequently, by 2047 (the centenary year of India's independence), India's population pyramid is projected to shift from an expansive pyramid to a constrictive pyramid, characterized by a bulge at the older age groups and a narrowing base.
Extra Exam-Relevant Facts:
☛ Demographic Dividend: India is currently experiencing a demographic dividend where the working-age population (ages 15–64) exceeds the dependent population, a window expected to last until roughly the mid-2040s.
☛ Elderly Population Projections: According to United Nations and UNFPA reports, the share of the elderly population in India is expected to double from approximately 10% in recent years to over 20% by 2050.
☛ Population Pyramid Types: An expansive pyramid has a broad base (high fertility), a stationary pyramid has balanced cohorts, and a constrictive pyramid narrows at the base (low fertility, aging population).
Important One-Liners for Upcoming Exams:
☛ What is the standard replacement level fertility rate per woman? → 2.1
☛ Which state in India recorded the lowest fertility rate according to NFHS-5? → Sikkim (1.1)
☛ What term describes the economic growth potential resulting from shifts in a population’s age structure? → Demographic Dividend
☛ According to the 2011 Census of India, what was the national median age? → Approximately 24.9 years
☛ Which Indian ministry conducts the National Family Health Survey (NFHS)? → Ministry of Health and Family Welfare